Defeating Putin: The indirect approach
Vladimir Putinís Russian Federation suffers from a serious lack of the ethnic, white Russians needed to continue the existence of Russia as Vladimir Putin knows and loves it. Despite paying Russian "birthing persons" to produce more Russian babies, the downward demographic spiral continues unabated. Consequently, the 43.3 million white folks (29 percent speak Russian) in neighboring Ukraine are irresistible to Putin, even if he has to kill thousands of Ukrainians to achieve a net demographic gain. Putin is also stealing Ukrainian children and placing them with Russian foster families.
Despite Russiaís declining population of military-age males, Russia still has enough troops to eventually defeat Ukraine through a War of Attrition. Moreover, despite help from NATO nations bordering Ukraine and proxy-war help from the United States, Ukraine can never generate enough combat power to defeat Russia in a War of Annihilation. Ergo: one way or another, Ukraine is doomed to lose part or all of its population to the Russian Federation.
Even worse, Putinís forces might push their way to the doorstep of the Suwalki Gap through which Russian forces, moving west, could effectively cut off the Baltic States of Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania from Poland. Because the Baltic States and Poland belong to NATO that would trigger NATOís Article 5, meaning that the nuclear-armed U.S. would be directly at war with the nuclear-armed Russia.
But wait. Letís consider the "indirect approach." Out in eastern Russia to the north of the Caucasus Mountains are 1.56 million Chechens, Russiaís largest non-white minority. In circa 1242 A.D., not even the brutal Mongols could conquer the equally tough Chechens.
Between 1994 and 1995 and 1999-2000, Russia and the Chechen Republic fought two horribly bloody wars. While the Russians claim victories, the Russiansí grudging concessions to the Chechens suggest otherwise. Between 2009 and 2014, Chechens have not blanched from blowing up hundreds of Russians in buses, even in school auditoriums. In October 2010, Chechen patriots, who hate CINOs (Chechens-in-name-only) as much as they hate Russians, tried to blow up the Chechen Parliament while in session.
Unlike President Biden* who, on January 20 2022, told the Ministry of State Media (MSM) that "A minor incursion," by Russia into Ukraine, "would not generate intense pushback," we donít like to incite violence. Ergo: the Biden* regime should stop wasting our tax dollars and munitions in an eventually fruitless effort in Ukraine. Instead the Biden* regime could deploy covert Special Forces and intelligence community assets to spur, yet another, Chechen rebellion.
Putin does not have sufficient combat power to fight a two-front war. Moreover, if the Chechens are even moderately successful, Russia runs the risk that the Tatar, Bashkur, Chuvash, and other non-white minorities could revolt, hastening the demise of Putin and the Russian Federation.
Suggested reading: The Strategy of the Indirect Approach by Sir Basil Liddell Hart, 1929.
War with Russia? by General Sir Richard Shirreff, 2016. LA Times, January 19, 2022, President Biden, " A minor incursion" by Russia into Ukraine "would not generate intense pushback."
©2023. William Hamilton.