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CENTRAL VIEW for Monday, March 20, 2023

by William Hamilton, Ph.D.

Ukraine and the Strategy of the Indirect Approach

Re: Ukraine. Letís assume that Ukraine, even with weapons help from all the civilized nations, cannot strike Russia hard enough to win a short War of Annihilation. Letís assume that Russiaís huge natural resources are so great that Ukraine cannot survive a long War of Attrition. Given those two assumptions, Ukraineís future looks bleak; however, what if we in the West adopt Sir Basil H. Liddell Hartís Strategy of the Indirect Approach?

Every nation has certain interests it wants met. For example, Sweden would like to join NATO. But NATO-member Turkey opposes Swedenís membership in NATO because Sweden has been supportive of the Kurds along Turkeyís southeastern border, who want to have their own U.S.-allied Kurdish nation.

Turkey wants to join the European Union (E.U.) But Sweden and other E.U. members are not comfortable about having more welfare-consuming Muslims inside the E.U.

Clever diplomacy on our part might get Sweden inside NATO and Turkey in the E.U.; provided Turkey, because of Putinís interference with Freedom of Navigation across the Black Sea, shuts down the Dardanelles to all Russian shipping, cutting off Russiaís access to its naval and air bases in Syria, its access to the Mediterranean, and to the Atlantic Ocean.

Sweden, by the way, has an interest that transcends membership in NATO. If Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, Putin will likely keep going until Putin has Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, back under Russian control, making the Baltic Sea once again a Russian lake and tiny Sweden facing a much larger Russian Navy.

Okay. So, what if the Sweden/Turkey deal isnít enough to turn some of Putinís military resources away from Ukraine? We might induce Chicom President XI to move his surplus of unmarried, horny, military-age males up to Chinaís border with Russian Siberia, poised to seize Russian oil and gas wells and some child-bearing Russian females to boot.

So, what could be offered to President XI to make that happen? We could offer to stop nagging Xi over his dictatorial treatment of Hong Kong. Or, stop nagging Xi about Xiís genocide of the Uyghurs (pronounced wee-gurs) on his western border. We could offer to side with China on its oil claims in the Spratly Islands. We could offer Xi some U.S. crude oil at bargain prices. We could offer to curb the rapidly rising growth of the Japanese Navy. We could even offer Xi a free hand with regard to Taiwan. Gulp! Recall, Geopolitics is sometimes unscrupulous and not for the faint of heart.

So, letís assume we get Turkey and the Chicoms to bite Putin in the derriŤre enough to turn Putinís attention away from Ukraine and to his need to transit the Dardanelles and to Putinís need to protect his Siberian oil fields. What do we get?

We buy the world some time. Maybe time for Putinís health to crash? Maybe time for the Russians to topple Putin? Even buy some time to replace the Obama/Biden* "woke-weakened" military with a force to be feared and respected.

Letís face it. The direct approach is not likely to stop Putinís, possibly nuclear drive through Ukraine to the Baltic Sea. Some form of the Indirect Approach may be Western Civilizationís best hope.

Suggested reading:The Strategy of the Indirect Approach by Sir Basil H. Liddell Hart, 1954. Disunited Nations by Peter Zeihan, 2020.

©2023. William Hamilton. "Central View" is always free at: www.central-view. com

©1999-2023. American Press Syndicate.

Dr. Hamilton can be contacted at:
P.O. Box 2001
Granby, CO 80446

Email: william@central-view.com

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